新常態(tài)下中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的七大機(jī)遇

Chen Yulu, president of Renmin University of China. [File photo / IC]

China's economy steps into the "new normal" phase, as it is growing in a manageable and relatively balanced manner. Confronted by a weakening overseas market, sliding domestic demand, adjustments in real estate sector and a deeper-level structural shift, the country faces mounting pressure of economic slowdown.
當(dāng)前的中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)步入“新常態(tài)”，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)進(jìn)入了可控、相對(duì)平衡的運(yùn)行區(qū)間。在外需疲軟、內(nèi)需回落、房地產(chǎn)調(diào)整及深層次結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的力量綜合作用下，經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力有所加劇。

However, the "new normal" does not only mean difficulties, challenges and risks. We still have the assertion that China's economy still has great strategic opportunities and can make great achievements. What has changed is the connotation and condition of this great opportunity.
然而，“新常態(tài)”并不是只有困難、挑戰(zhàn)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，新常態(tài)沒有改變我國(guó)發(fā)展仍處于可以大有作為的重要戰(zhàn)略機(jī)遇期的判斷，改變的是重要戰(zhàn)略機(jī)遇期的內(nèi)涵和條件。

China's economy is still featured with the fundamentals that it is growing in a healthy manner, with its development mode and economic structure changed. So the "new normal" of China's economy is breeding a great development opportunity with which the country, as a rising power, embraces the new economic system.
沒有改變我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展總體向好的基本面，改變的是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式和經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)。因此，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)“新常態(tài)”孕育著一個(gè)正在崛起的國(guó)家擁抱新經(jīng)濟(jì)體系的宏大發(fā)展機(jī)遇。

First, the opportunity of major reforms and adjustments. The financial crisis in 2008 exposed the serious structural problem in the world's economy, and pronounced the end of China's traditional growth approach. Problems such as great energy consuming and severe pollution along with the high investment, social economic conflict along with the gap in income distribution, and the insufficiency of innovation plagued by excessive control have become hurdles for China to realize a prosperous country, affluent livelihood and the national rejuvenation.
第一,大改革與大調(diào)整的機(jī)遇。2008年國(guó)際金融危機(jī)不僅暴露了世界經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨巨大的結(jié)構(gòu)性問題，同時(shí)也宣告了鑲嵌在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)格局中的中國(guó)傳統(tǒng)增長(zhǎng)模式走到了盡頭。高投資帶來(lái)的高能耗與高污染、收入分配差距帶來(lái)的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)沖突以及過度管制帶來(lái)的創(chuàng)新不足已經(jīng)成為中國(guó)實(shí)現(xiàn)國(guó)家富強(qiáng)、人民富足和民族復(fù)興的絆腳石。

Chinese people have realized that the major reforms and adjustments are the only choice to restructure the fundamentals of China's social and economic developments. The consensus reached in the "major reforms" and "major adjustments" is the best gift that the "new normal" brings to the next round of China's economic development. It gives China a great opportunity amid the worldwide structural reforms.
人民深深認(rèn)識(shí)到，大改革和大調(diào)整是重構(gòu)中國(guó)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展基石的唯一選擇。這種“大改革”與“大調(diào)整”共識(shí)的形成是“新常態(tài)”帶給中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)下一輪發(fā)展的最大禮物,在世界性結(jié)構(gòu)改革的大浪潮中給予了中國(guó)良好的機(jī)遇期。

Second, the opportunity in major consumption, major market and constructing the "effect of major economy". Other countries may be amazed to find that China, while stabilizing its position as the world's second largest economy, has its market demand and domestic consumption greatly improved.
第二,大消費(fèi)、大市場(chǎng)與構(gòu)建“大國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)”的機(jī)遇。世界各國(guó)驚奇地發(fā)現(xiàn)，中國(guó)在GDP穩(wěn)居世界第二位的同時(shí)，其市場(chǎng)份額和消費(fèi)規(guī)模也大幅度提升。

The demand from China becomes a key factor in the world's demand and the "effect of a major economy" has revealed. For the first, the great scale and scope of China's economy, with the improvement of productivity offsetting the rise of various costs, does not lower its market demand in the world. For the second, the consumption is accelerating, as China's consumption is growing on an average speed of 13 percent every year.
中國(guó)需求成為世界需求最為重要的決定因素,“大國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)”開始全面顯現(xiàn)。一是在市場(chǎng)上出現(xiàn)全面的規(guī)模效應(yīng)和范圍效應(yīng)，生產(chǎn)效率的提升有效對(duì)沖著各種成本的上升，使中國(guó)在世界市場(chǎng)的份額并沒有下降；二是消費(fèi)開始上臺(tái)階，中國(guó)消費(fèi)規(guī)模依然每年按照平均13%的速度增長(zhǎng)。

Along with the expansion of demand from China, the purchase made by China has become a core factor to stabilize the world's economy. China is shifting its role from "the world's factory" to the "world's market". For the last, the role as the "world's factory" has been linked with that of the "world's market", and thus integrates the domestic trade with international trade. It makes the country's economy more stabilized and greatly improves its capability to deal with the turbulence in the world's economy.
中國(guó)需求的擴(kuò)張使中國(guó)采購(gòu)成為世界經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定的核心因素，中國(guó)開始從“世界工廠”轉(zhuǎn)向“世界市場(chǎng)”。三是中國(guó)的“世界工廠”開始與中國(guó)的“世界市場(chǎng)”相對(duì)接，在內(nèi)外貿(mào)一體化的作用下使中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定性和抵抗世界經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的能力大幅度上揚(yáng)。

Third, the opportunity in great potential and constructing pluralistic growth poles. By the end of 2014, the index in China's every industry has shown that China's economy is shifting to post-industrialization, and the dividend of industrialization is wearing out. But we must see the great dimension and size of China's economy. The Yangtze River Delta region, Pearl River Delta region, and Beijing-Tianjin area have shifted to a growth mode significantly driven by the service industry.
第三,“大縱深”與構(gòu)建多元增長(zhǎng)極的機(jī)遇。雖然到2014年底，中國(guó)各類產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的指標(biāo)已經(jīng)標(biāo)志著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)開始向后工業(yè)化階段轉(zhuǎn)化，工業(yè)化紅利開始衰竭。但是，一定要看到中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)縱深的厚度和寬度，即“長(zhǎng)三角”、“珠三角”以及“京津地區(qū)”雖然開始全面轉(zhuǎn)向服務(wù)業(yè)驅(qū)動(dòng)。

But the per capita GDP in the vast central and west China as well as northeastern China is still lower than $5,000, with the industrialization in these areas remaining fast development in medium term. It will make way for upgrading the industry in the coastal areas, meanwhile accelerate the development in western areas. So the great shift of China's industry greatly slows down the receding of dividend of China's industrialization. By constructing the pluralistic growth poles, the layout of China's growth is more scientific.
但廣大的中西部和東北地區(qū)人均GDP依然不足5000美元，工業(yè)化依然處于高速發(fā)展的中期階段。這不僅為東部產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)提供有效的騰挪空間，也為中西部加速發(fā)展提供了契機(jī)。因此，中國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)的梯度大轉(zhuǎn)移不僅大大延緩了中國(guó)工業(yè)化紅利消退的速度，同時(shí)通過構(gòu)建多元化的增長(zhǎng)極使中國(guó)空間布局更加科學(xué)。

Fourth, the opportunity from "talents" and seeking second round of demographic dividend. The arrival of Lewis Turning Point and drawing close of aged society mean the traditional population dividend of China is wearing off. But it must be pointed out that it is only in the migrant worker sector that the problems of "being difficult to hire qualified workers" and "labor cost being on the rise" are most prominent. The layout of China's employment market features both "the difficulty of college students to land a job" and "the lack of migrant workers".
第四,“大人才”與構(gòu)建第二次人口紅利的機(jī)遇。劉易斯拐點(diǎn)的到來(lái)和老齡社會(huì)的逼近意味著中國(guó)傳統(tǒng)的人口紅利開始消退。但必須注意的是，目前“招工難”和“用工貴”問題主要凸顯在農(nóng)民工領(lǐng)域。中國(guó)的就業(yè)格局是“大學(xué)生就業(yè)難”與“民工荒”相并存。

With up to 7 million college students graduating every year, the starting salary of these students have started to draw close to that of farmer-turned workers. But that is the key point for China to shift from a populous country to one with powerful human resources.
每年高達(dá)700多萬(wàn)大學(xué)生畢業(yè)壓力已經(jīng)使大學(xué)生就業(yè)起薪與農(nóng)民工平均工資開始拉平。而這恰恰是中國(guó)從人口大國(guó)邁向人力資源強(qiáng)國(guó)的關(guān)鍵。

It manifests that a large number of well-educated people have prepared China's industry upgrading with massive highly qualified and low-cost backup reserves. The second round of population dividend that features college students and human resources is replacing the traditional population dividend that features migrant workers and low-end labor force.
這說明大規(guī)模受過高等教育的人群已經(jīng)為中國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)準(zhǔn)備了大規(guī)模高素質(zhì)、低成本的產(chǎn)業(yè)后備大軍。以大學(xué)生和人力資源為核心的第二次人口紅利開始替代以農(nóng)民工和低端勞動(dòng)力為核心的傳統(tǒng)人口紅利。

Fifth, the opportunity from "major innovation" and constructing technology dividend. When screening the various indexes of China's technology innovation, we will find that the new innovative development approach is taking shape while the extensive mode of economic development comes to an end. First, there is a significant growth in the number of patent applications: the number reached 2.577 million in 2013, up 15.9 percent. It accounts for 32.1 percent of the world's total, ranking the top in the world. Second, the expenditure in R&D increased significantly: it accounts for 2.09 percent of China's GDP in 2014, up 12.4 percent, or growing in a high-speed, moderate intensity level. Third, there is a great boost in the prosperity of technology market: in 2013 the trade volume in technology market reached 746.9 billion yuan, up 16 percent. Fourth, the export of high-tech products rose substantially, with the total volume climbing to $660.3 billion, or 30 percent of the total export volume. Fifth, the number of technology papers published overseas drew close to 300,000, making China one of the major powers of technology papers. Sixth, China boasts the world's largest team of researchers in science and technology sector. All these figures show that China will gradually obtain the dividend in technological innovation as long as it deepens reforms in technological system and encourages all kinds of innovative and creative activities. "Made in China" is shifting to "Innovate by China", along with the shift from labor intensive manufacturing to knowledge intensive industries.
第五,“大創(chuàng)新”與構(gòu)建技術(shù)紅利的機(jī)遇。仔細(xì)梳理中國(guó)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新發(fā)展的各類指標(biāo)，我們會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)，在粗放式發(fā)展模式走到盡頭的同時(shí)，中國(guó)創(chuàng)新發(fā)展模式已經(jīng)嶄露頭角：一是專利申請(qǐng)大幅度提升，于2013年達(dá)到257.7萬(wàn)，增速為15.9%，占世界總數(shù)的32.1%，居世界第一；二是R&D經(jīng)費(fèi)支出突破低水平閥值，于2014年達(dá)到GDP的2.09%，增速達(dá)12.4%，進(jìn)入高速度、中等強(qiáng)度階段；三是技術(shù)市場(chǎng)活躍程度大幅度提升，2013年技術(shù)市場(chǎng)交易額達(dá)到7469億元，增速達(dá)到16%；四是高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品出口大幅增長(zhǎng)，總額達(dá)到6603億美元，占出口總額的30%；五是國(guó)外發(fā)表的科技論文在2013年已接近30萬(wàn)篇，邁入世界科技論文大國(guó)的行列。六是中國(guó)擁有世界最龐大的科學(xué)技術(shù)研究人員。上述這些參數(shù)說明，只要進(jìn)一步進(jìn)行科技體制改革和鼓勵(lì)各類創(chuàng)新創(chuàng)業(yè)活動(dòng)，中國(guó)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新紅利必將逐步實(shí)現(xiàn)。“中國(guó)制造”開始向“中國(guó)創(chuàng)新”轉(zhuǎn)型，從勞動(dòng)力密集型制造業(yè)向知識(shí)密集產(chǎn)業(yè)過渡。

Sixth, the opportunity in major upgrade and planning an upgrading version of China's economy. China's economy has shown the symbols of overall upgrading under the multiple influences including market, technology and human resources. For one, the consumption behavior has shown substantial upgrading as per capita GDP drew close to $8,000.The industrialized-style consumption that centers on basic needs of food, clothing, housing and traffic in the past 30 years begins to shift to post-industrialized consumption that features high-end finished product and service.
第六,大升級(jí)與構(gòu)建升級(jí)版中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的機(jī)遇。在市場(chǎng)、技術(shù)、人力等多方面的作用下，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)開始出現(xiàn)全面升級(jí)的勢(shì)頭：一是在人均GDP接近8000美元時(shí)，消費(fèi)開始出現(xiàn)大幅度升級(jí)，開始從過去30年的以吃穿住行為主體的工業(yè)化消費(fèi)轉(zhuǎn)向以高端制成品和服務(wù)消費(fèi)為主的后工業(yè)化消費(fèi)。

For the other, driven by the demand, the industry has started a major shift from manufacturing to service sector, from labor intensive industry to technology intensive sectors. An upgrading version of China's economy is taking shape.
二是產(chǎn)業(yè)在需求拉動(dòng)下，開始大幅度由制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)向服務(wù)業(yè)、由勞動(dòng)密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)向知識(shí)與技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)。中國(guó)升級(jí)版經(jīng)濟(jì)的雛形開始顯現(xiàn)。

Seventh, the opportunity in major opening-up and global layout of China's economy. The overall elevation of China's economic power and the change in layout of global economy because of the 2008 financial crisis grant China an unprecedented opportunity to carry out major opening-up and global layout. First, China begins to shift from the "era of exporting commodities" to the higher level of "capital export". The direct investment in overseas market is rising substantially, with major increases in overseas mergers and acquisitions.The average growth rate surpassed 30 percent, as the FDI in overseas market surpassed $100 billion.
第七,大開放與中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)全球布局的機(jī)遇。中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力的全面提升以及2008年國(guó)際金融危機(jī)帶來(lái)的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)格局的變化給予了中國(guó)前所未有的進(jìn)行大開放和全球布局的機(jī)遇。一是中國(guó)開始從“商品輸出時(shí)代”轉(zhuǎn)向更為高級(jí)的“資本輸出時(shí)代”，對(duì)外的FDI高速增長(zhǎng)，海外并購(gòu)?fù)伙w猛進(jìn)，其平均增速超過30%，對(duì)外投資總量2014年已突破1000億美元。

Second, the set-up of regional free trade zone radiates the related areas during the process of opening-up. Third, centered on the "One Belt and One Road" project, a full integration will be carried out between China's spatial strategy and opening-up strategy.China will form new international partnership through links and communication.
二是以區(qū)域性自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的構(gòu)建全面強(qiáng)化中國(guó)開放的板塊效應(yīng)；三是以“一帶一路”為核心展開中國(guó)空間戰(zhàn)略與開放戰(zhàn)略全面對(duì)接，并通過互聯(lián)互通打造中國(guó)新的國(guó)際合作格局。

Fourth, the setup of the world's financial institutes including the New development Bank, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and Silk Road Fund breaks the industry landscape dominated by Europe and the United States. These developments expand China's space in resources distribution and its profitability mode, and will bring China to a new stage of development.
四是以金磚銀行、亞洲基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資銀行、絲路基金等國(guó)際金融機(jī)構(gòu)的構(gòu)建，打破歐美一統(tǒng)國(guó)際金融的格局。這些拓展有效擴(kuò)張了中國(guó)資源配置的空間以及盈利模式，必將把中國(guó)發(fā)展帶入新階段。

For sure, to secure the above seven opportunities and transfer all strategic chances into real growth and development, we need to tackle effectively all kinds of problems and challenges that the "new normal" faces. We need to roll out a system that adapts to the next-round of economic development on the back of full and deepened reforms.
當(dāng)然，要很好把握上述七大機(jī)遇，將各種戰(zhàn)略機(jī)遇轉(zhuǎn)化為真正的增長(zhǎng)和發(fā)展，這不僅需要我們有效解決“新常態(tài)”面臨的各種問題和挑戰(zhàn)，同時(shí)還需要我們?cè)谌嫔罨母锏幕A(chǔ)上構(gòu)建出適合下一輪經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的制度體系。

Vocabulary：

integrate: 使結(jié)合

national rejuvenation: 民族復(fù)興

dividend: 紅利

作者：中國(guó)人民大學(xué)校長(zhǎng) 陳雨露

（中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)網(wǎng)英語(yǔ)點(diǎn)津 Helen 編輯）